Today’s question: Who will win the 109th Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge this Sunday?
Curt Cavin: I have been calling this a two-horse race for several weeks, and I’m going to stick with it as one of those horses will come out of the gate from the 32nd post. So, for me, it’s all about Alex Palou, who has been one of the best Indy non-winners of the modern era. The series points leader has led 119 total laps in the event, and I can make a case he could have won this event in 2021 (beaten by Helio Castroneves in a late-race shootout), 2022 (came back to finish ninth after getting caught out by a caution) and 2023 (scrambled back to finish fourth after being struck by Rinus VeeKay on pit road). He finished fifth in his other “500” with Chip Ganassi Racing, giving him an average finish of 5.0 in four years here with the team. Can Josef Newgarden come all the way from the last row to win again? Sure, but there’s a reason no one has won from that far back. Can Pato O’Ward win his first? Absolutely. But Palou is the best pick, and he’s been mine for a month. You didn’t ask, but my dark horse is Takuma Sato. He starts second, and one in three “500” winners come from the front row.
Eric Smith: Eventually, Alex Palou is going to win an Indianapolis 500. Everything tells me that it’s going to happen this year. However, I keep coming back to the fact that 15 of the last 16 Indianapolis 500s were won by drivers 32 years of age or older. The outlier is a then 24-year-old Alexander Rossi’s 2016 upset where he stretched fuel to coast to a victory in the 100th Running. Instead, I’ll take Palou’s Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon. He’s overdue, with Dixon’s last “500” victory coming in 2008. The six-time series champion has three top-six finishes in his last five Indy 500 starts, and in last week’s practice, he was fourth, fourth, second and second, respectively, on the speed charts. While he had a mechanical issue during Monday’s practice session, I believe the team will dial his No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda to drink the milk on Sunday.
Arni Sribhen: After watching days of practice and qualifying, I’m convinced about two things. Conor Daly has a really good race car, and Pato O’Ward just might win the 109th Indianapolis 500. Numbers don’t lie: Outside of the pole, the race winner statistically has started on the front row 41.3 percent of the time. Breaking it down further, the outside front row starter has won 13 times – second only to the pole sitter’s 21 wins. But while my head wants me to believe the numbers, in nearly every race-running practice that I’ve seen this year, the No. 76 AM/PM-sponsored Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet always seems to be passing someone. And while Daly didn’t make it to the fight for the pole, he has a solid starting spot in Row 4. So, do I follow my head or my gut? Pato is the smart pick, but Conor just might be the dark horse this year.
Paul Kelly: The last time my annual Indy 500 winner prediction, either in print or among friends, was accurate was in 1990, when I picked Arie Luyendyk to win. The Flying Dutchman earned the first of his two spots on the Borg-Warner Trophy from the third starting position, and I think the guy who is starting on the outside of the front row this year – Pato O’Ward – also will have his image sculpted by Will Behrends for permanent placement on the most beautiful trophy in sports. O’Ward came agonizingly close to winning last year, losing the lead in Turn 3 on the final lap by Josef Newgarden. Pato has finished second in his last two starts that he has seen the checkered flag, in 2022 and 2024. If he can get through Turn 1 on Lap 1 with a rookie in his first oval race, Robert Shwartzman, and one of the most aggressive drivers in this generation of the race, “no attack, no chance” Takuma Sato, O’Ward’s honest agony in his post-race interviews last year will be replaced by milk-soaked ecstasy Sunday on the Victory Podium. It’s Pato’s year.